Avalanche forecast

East Cabinet Mountains

Idaho Panhandle Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Warm temperatures and heavy precipitation in the form of rain have saturated the upper layer of the snowpack. The additional weight on our snowpack will continue to test any weaknesses within the snowpack.  Natural avalanches are possible in steep, unanchored terrain.   We have received 0.35-1.76" of rain at the lower and mid elevations.  The possibility of triggering a large avalanche on the deep persistant slab will be elevated until the temperature drops and the snowpack freezes again and adjusts to the added weight. The snow level will drop this afternoon causing rain to transition to snow and accumulate rapidly.  Winds will be up to 40-50mph out of the S transitioning to SW by evening.  Storm and wind slabs will develop  at the mid and upper elevations by this aftenoon.

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Wet slab avalanches are possible today in steep terrain below the snowline until the temperatures drop below freezing.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–3

    The persistent weak layer near the base of the snowpack is a bigger concern than it has been the past few weeks with warm temperatures and precipitation adding additional weight to the snowpack.  When it rains, water percolates through the snow breaking bonds between the layers in the snow, which increases the likelihood of avalanche activity.  It is hard to predict if and when this layer will fail, so travel in or below steep, exposed terrain is not recommended.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Rain will transition to snow and accumulate quickly this afternoon at the mid and upper elevations.  We lack certainty in how well the new snow will bond to the old snow surface, so if you find yourself in the upper elevations assess the interface between the layers by digging in the snow and doing a hand shear or hasty pit.  

Avalanche Discussion

The weather has given us a bit of everything the last week!  Temperatures are starting to drop and with it rain will start to transition to snow.  Wet slab avalanches are likely today and have the potential to step-down to the November rain crusts and facets near the base of the snowpack.  Expect avalanche conditions to remain heightened through the next few days as we continue to get more snow.  The Cabinets may get 10-24 inches of snow  with winds out of the S-SW 40-50 mph, so natural avalanche activity is likely.  

The visibility was poor when we were gathering snowpit data yesterday, but we did see evidence of natural avalanche activity at mid-elevations.  Our pit results showed more stability than anticipated yesterday, but the rain continued throughout the day and temperatures remained warm overnight, so wet slab and wet loose avalanche activity is still possible.

The big thing to watch out for today will be new snow and strong winds. The snow will come in pretty dense and form slabs that will build throughout the day. This problem will become an issue as more snow falls and the snowline drops back down the hill. I think it is likely we will see some pretty widespread storm slab and wind slab problems by Wednesday. The wild card here will be how this new snow bonds to the existing snowpack. With the upper snowpack being wet and warm and a gradual cool down taking place it is possible that the new snow will stick pretty well. Time will tell!

Regions covered