Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Tue
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
4 · High
Below
4 · High
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Very dangerous avalanche conditions continue today. The snowpack has received rapid loading of 2.25 inches of water and 14 inches of snow in 24 hours. Any slope greater than 30 degrees has the potential of producing a large, and fatal avalanche. Stay off of, and out from underneath, avalanche terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Very Likely
    Size
    2–3.5

    The snowpack is currently overloaded with 14 inches of snow and 2.25 inches of water from the last 24 hours. Without enough time to adjust to the newly added load, the snowpack has destabilized. Wind and storm slab avalanches are likely, with one or both affecting all aspects and elevations. Wind slabs will be even deeper, and more specific to northerly aspects near and above treeline. Any avalanche triggered could break more than 3 feet deep, unusually wide, and run into low angle terrain. Stay off of, and out from underneath, terrain steeper than 30 degrees. 

Avalanche Discussion

Today is the third day in a row with HIGH danger. With the risk of message fatigue, it's important to understand the sheer amount of weight that is currently straining the snowpack and why the danger level is high. Since Friday (1/19), Old Ski Bowl weather station has recorded 5.5 inches of Snow Water Equivalent (SWE), and 34 inches of snow. More specifically, the last 24 hours provided 2.25 inches of SWE, and 14 inches of snow. The consistent precipitation hasn't provided sufficient respite for the snowpack to settle and adjust since the onset of these weather systems. As the load continues to increase, the possibility of very dangerous, fatal avalanches will also increase. Considering this amount of water and snow, expect all slopes above 30 degrees to be unstable and potentially avalanche. Any triggered avalanche could break, up to 3 feet deep, hundreds of feet wide, and run unusually long distances. Today is a dangerous day to be testing the snowpack. Travel with caution. With storms like this, respect needs to be given. It's often best to step back, and let the system run its course.

Looking further out, precipitation is forecasted to taper off through today, with temperatures cooling overnight. The following couple days show even lighter precipitation. This could finally give the snowpack a chance to settle with the newly added snow. In the world of mountains and avalanches, patience is key. Soon, the sun will come out, and we will all get to explore steeper terrain! But not today.

Regions covered