Avalanche forecast

Southeast Mountains

Crested Butte Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

Mountain temperatures have yet to drop below freezing for over a week.  The natural wet cycle is expected to decline under cooler temperatures.  Once shallow surface crusts melt, human-triggered wet avalanches will be easy to initiate on slopes steeper than 35 degrees, as we observed yesterday (see video).  These are nasty cement mixers that can quickly grow to large and dangerous sizes, and some can break widely as slabs.    

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–3

    Recent wet slab avalanche activity has most often been triggered by smaller wet loose avalanches releasing higher up on the slope. These avalanches can also be human-triggered. The heavy weight of the wet snow will make skiing out of one of these cement mixers nearly impossible.  The most active terrain this week has been where previously dry snowpacks are currently or recently transitioning to wet conditions (E to NE and W to NW aspects), especially near and above treeline and on steeper, rockier slopes that amplify melt. Most southerly-facing slopes have already made this transition, while high, north-facing terrain has remained mostly dry. Wet avalanches are less likely early in the day while the snow surface remains frozen and meltwater production is limited. The hazard increases as the snowpack warms, crusts thaw, and/or free water moves deeper into the snowpack.

    This wet slab avalanche ran midday on Tuesday near Ruby Peak.  It broke several feet deep, starting on a northeast aspect and propagating into an east aspect. (3/24/2026)

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    Wet loose avalanches are the most concerning where you sink deeply into wet snow. In these areas, a small point-release avalanche can entrain the entire snowpack, becoming powerful and large. In some cases, small wet loose avalanches also trigger bigger wet slab avalanches as they run downslope. Reduce your exposure to this avalanche problem by traveling early in steep terrain before surface crusts thaw or moving to lower slope angles.   

    Full-depth wet loose avalanches were easy to trigger yesterday. Expect similar conditions again later today.  (3/26/2026) 

Avalanche Discussion

Although last night's temperatures were cooler than we've seen in the last few days (temperatures decreased to 36° at 11,000'), it's also notable that cloud cover acted as an insulating blanket on the snowpack until clearing out around 2 a.m.  Above valley inversions, I expect you'll find another shallow refreeze that will break down and become unsupportive as the day heats up.  If you find a thick, supportive crust this morning, that signals improved stability and lower risk in steep terrain.  Once surface crusts thaw, expect similar human-triggering conditions to those we observed yesterday at Elk Creek or earlier this week on Ruby Peak.  We expect large wet natural activity to continue the apparent downtrend that began yesterday under a cooling temperature trend. 

Mild nighttime temperatures and the chance of cloud cover are expected to prevent a deep refreeze over the next few days.  Cooler temperatures will turn down the water faucet, which should help the snowpack gradually recover from our extreme heat wave.  Early starts and finishes remain important for managing wet avalanche concerns.  Next week, we'll finally see cold temperatures and a stronger refreeze, with fresh snow to talk about.      

Events: Join us and Matchstick Productions at Josés Elevation Hotel deck at the base area this Saturday 1-6 p.m. for the MSP March Meltdown. There will be live music from the Shakedown Family Band and Crested Butte's own Mountain Jam, drink specials and a raffle with proceeds to benefit the Crested Butte Avalanche Center

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