Avalanche forecast

West Slopes North

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
3 · Considerable
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Highlights

We've got another wet day on Wednesday, with likely small and large human-triggered wet avalanches, plus natural avalanches that  are possible. We expect most avalanches to be small, running on the crust less than a foot below the surface, but an  avalanche could break down to the lower crust, two feet below the surface. Avoid all steep slopes on Wednesday, and if you see large, natural avalanches running, then danger is higher so avoid travel beneath large steep slopes as well. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    We're getting about an inch of rain Tuesday night, then about 3/4 of an inch Wednesday. It's already very wet out there, and both natural and human-triggered avalanches are on the table for Wednesday. A big difference in this zone from other areas further south is that we received far less snow in the storm cycle from 3/8-3/15. Less than a foot of snow, which is wet and consolidating, sits over the 3/8 crust, and that's where we expect most avalanches to happen. Many smaller avalanches could be on the menu for Wednesday. 

     Avoid travel on all steep slopes, especially areas near rocks and large, unsupported features that roll over and get steeper. If you see many fresh, natural avalanches gouging deep into the snowpack, or large wet slabs releasing, then very dangerous conditions exist. It's time to take a full step back and avoid all avalanche terrain, including lower-angle slopes beneath steep slopes. Wet avalanches, even if small, can be forceful enough to injure you or push you into hazards, even if they're not big enough to bury you. 

Avalanche Discussion

An avalanche class in the Baker backcountry on Tuesday reported pooling water above the 3/12 crust, where we expect most avalanches to happen. There was intermittent moistening beneath that, with some spots on the underlying 3/8 crust wet, but not others. See the pit photo in the media gallery.  It's not out of the question that an avalanche could fail as deep as the 3/8 crust. They observed one natural wet slab avalanche that had likely recently failed in the area, although observations were limited, along with visibility. 

From 3/8-3/15 we received about a foot of snow over the 3/8 crust. This dry, low-density snow layer had minimal avalanche activity, aside from loose dry sluffs, unlike our neighbors further south, who had much deeper layers and large slab avalanches that released both naturally and with triggers. The layer over the crust has now consolidated to about 8 inches deep.

Be ready to assess conditions for yourself if you go out on Wednesday.  At mid and lower elevations, holes around boulders and creeks may be barely covered and could lead to a dangerous fall. Make sure to keep close tabs on your partners in case you need to rescue them. 

Regions covered