Avalanche forecast

Togwotee Pass

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
No rating
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Highlights

A quick pulse of snow accompanied by moderate wind formed shallow slabs on wind loaded upper elevation terrain. Look for signs of wind drifted snow on open and exposed terrain, such as cracking, stiffened surfaces, and large pillows. The possibility of wet slab avalanche activity remains on steep southerly aspects with daytime temperatures above freezing across all elevations.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–1.5

    High pressure finally ended with 4” of snow overnight. This snow was accompanied by a quick burst of SW wind over 20 mph creating reactive wind slabs less than 8” deep on specific terrain in upper elevations off ridgelines and open, exposed slopes. The new snow sits on weak interfaces formed over the last week including facets on sheltered N aspects and widespread crust on W-S-E aspects across all elevations. Watch for new snow instability across all elevations. Assess new snow instability by performing quick hand shear tests and looking for those signs of wind loaded slopes. 

    (3/14/2024)

    Cracking snow surfaces, a sign of instability on wind loaded terrain. 

    Photo: Alex Drinkard

  • Wet Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    A week of warm weather continuing today has allowed free flowing water to move through the snowpack creating wet slab avalanches. One natural wet slab avalanche occurred on 3/19 near Breccia. Even though temperatures are decreasing, water is still moving through the snowpack making this type of problem difficult to predict. Therefore, it remains possible to trigger a large avalanche 1-2 feet deep on southerly aspects, especially around rock features. Today's partial cloud coverage, and slightly cooler temperatures will continue trending this avalanche problem towards unlikely.  Pay attention for signs of warming. Monitor snow surfaces today for wet and slushy surfaces where you are sinking into the snow in the afternoon and seek colder, shaded terrain. 

    (3/20/2024)

    Natural wet slab avalanche that failed three days ago near Breccia on steep SE aspect at 9700' around rock features.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    Triggering an avalanche remains possible on weak snow buried 2-4 feet deep below hard slabs. This weak, sugary snow exists across all aspects and elevations near the base of the snowpack. The last persistent slab avalanche occurred 3/16 in Upper Deception Creek. These avalanches are also difficult to predict, but areas where triggering is most probable include steep, rocky, and wind affected slopes on the north half of the compass. These slopes contain thin, shallow spots where riders can impact the weak layers more easily. Again, limit exposure underneath cornices. Cornice falls are the most likely way to trigger a very large persistent slab avalanche.

    (3/17/2024)

    This persistent slab avalanche was snowmobile-triggered on an E aspect at 9000' on 3/16. 

Avalanche Discussion

Snow Returns!

A shortwave trough brought 4" of new snow to Togwotee  accompanied by moderate winds. These winds tapered off quickly, so wind slabs will remain shallow and less than 8" deep. Wind is forecasted to stay below 20 mph today. The weak surfaces formed prior to this storm will be a concern today even in wind sheltered terrain, as new snow could move easily on the widespread crusts and near surface facets formed on specific northerly slopes. Watch for the new snow to become more reactive during the day as temperatures increase, especially on southerly aspects with clear skies and solar influence. Dry loose will also be a concern knocking riders off their feet  (unlikely to affect snowmobilers due to shallow new snow depth) where crusts exist below the new snow. 

There’s also the potential for wet slab avalanche activity to continue today. Consistent warm temperatures above freezing allows free water to move through the snowpack. Free water in the snowpack can have a "lag" effect, meaning it takes time to move through the snowpack and drain or re-freeze. Hence why these wet slabs can still be reactive even with the cold night time temperatures and decreasing daytime temperatures. Wet slab avalanches are difficult to predict, even for professionals. This problem exists on southerly aspects, especially around rock features that absorb heat and intensifies the warming of snow around them. Seek sheltered shaded aspects as both the danger and riding quality will be better. Just watch out for those wind slabs and new snow instability on steep slopes.

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