Avalanche forecast

East Slopes Central

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Another round of light snow and moderate winds is in store for the Eastern Cascades on Thursday. You may find shallow slabs of wind-drifted snow where you could trigger an avalanche near ridgelines, the base of cliffs, or cross-loaded gullies. Feel and look for deeper drifts, stiff textured surfaces, or actively blowing snow to identify steep wind-loaded slopes to avoid. 

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    At upper elevations, moderate winds may continue to drift snow around, forming shallow wind slabs where you could trigger an avalanche. Expect more snow and larger avalanches further west, towards the Cascade Crest. Slopes below ridgelines and the base of cliffs are likely spots for wind slabs to form. Look for textured surfaces or stiff, hollow-sounding snow to identify wind slab locations. You can also use quick hand pits, your probe, or poles to feel for stiffer snow over softer snow. If you see shooting cracks in wind-stiffened snow, this is a sign to choose low-angle terrain. 

    At mid-elevations, wet loose avalanches may become increasingly likely in the late afternoon, and the rain/snow line creeps up to elevations with more recent snow. 

    We expect most of these avalanches to be small, but but use caution in high-consequence terrain where a fall could have unfortunate outcomes. Cornice falls are common this time of year and are a hazard on their own, but they can also trigger slab avalanches on the slopes below. Don't linger for long beneath these monsters.

    (3/16/2022)

    An example of a small wind slab in high-elevation terrain. You may see similar avalanches on Thursday. 

    Photo: Matt Primomo

Avalanche Discussion

Areas like Salmon La Sac and the far west end of the Teanaway likely picked up around 4-6" of snow on Wednesday. Thursday will bring another 2-4" of snow with moderate winds to the East Central. This isn't a particularly cold storm, and freezing levels will increase throughout the day. So, you may find some wet snow avalanches at low and mid elevations as the day warms up. Larger wet loose avalanches are possible in areas like Salmon La Sac with higher recent snow totals. 

The diurnal warming and dynamic spring weather can lead to rapidly changing avalanche conditions. New snow concerns like wind and storm slabs can quickly become wet snow problems in the afternoon. Make frequent observations, and be prepared for changing conditions and snow stability. 

 On Tuesday, I found some isolated areas with weak faceted snow over a melt-freeze crust near Blewett Pass. We don't expect this to be a widespread problem, but checking the bond with the old snow surface as you travel is always a good idea. If you find the new snow slides easily, avalanches are more likely.

Most elevations have multiple crusts in the upper snowpack from the recent spring-like weather from last week. On some high-elevation northern aspects, there is still weaker snow over the Early February Crust. However, this layer is gaining strength, stability test results are inconsistent, and it has had little avalanche activity since the warm-up. This combination of factors makes us reasonably confident that avalanches on this persistent weak layer are unlikely. However, there is always lingering uncertainty with these tricky, persistent weak layers, so step into large, north-facing alpine terrain with this in mind. A big warm-up or powerful storm could also bring this problem back to life. 

Lower elevations are melting out quickly, and you may experience challenging travel conditions below 4000ft, particularly on southern slopes. 

Observations have been sparse. Help create a more accurate forecast by submitting your public observations here. 

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