Avalanche forecast

Sawtooth & Western Smoky Mtns

Sawtooth Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
Out of date — this forecast expired 2 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Triggering a large, destructive avalanche isn't out of the question. You can greatly reduce your risk by avoiding rocky and wind-affected slopes. You could trigger slides remotely—from flat terrain below, above, and to the sides of steep slopes. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    You are most likely to trigger a large avalanche in terrain where the wind frequently blows and the snowpack depth is variable. These wind-affected slopes are mostly found at upper elevations, near ridgelines, and prominent terrain features. Triggering an avalanche is much less likely—but not out of the question—on steep slopes that appear to be completely sheltered from the wind. 

    On most slopes, hefty 2-5 foot thick slabs rest above various weak layers (facets, surface hoar, crusts, and combinations). You're most likely to impact these layers where the slab is thinner. Thin spots are common at the edge of a slab, near ridgelines, or along rocky, midslope ribs. Remotely triggering an avalanche from flat terrain near steep slopes is a possibility.

    Unfortunately, we can't expect obvious signs of instability like snowpack cracking and collapses or whumpfs to highlight the danger. However, this lack of feedback does not mean a slope is safe. Multiple people could ski or ride a slope before triggering an avalanche. Persistent slab problems are tricky and aren't effectively managed with micro-scale route finding. The best way to manage your risk is to choose lower-angled slopes and steer clear of wind-loaded terrain peppered with rocks. 

    Additional Discussion: You may be able to trigger fresh, thin wind slab avalanches that formed near ridgelines and in cross-loaded areas on the sides of gullies in alpine terrain.  Look for recent cornice growth, dunes, or ripples in the snow surface. These are signs the wind has been at work transporting snow. These avalanches could step down to trigger the much larger avalanches described above.  

    (1/4/2025) Snowmobilers remotely triggered this very large avalanche in the Salmon River headwaters. One rider was caught, fully buried, and successfully rescued. The crown is on a NE aspect near 9300'. Photo: Sawtooth Avalanche Center

Avalanche Discussion

Wednesday's strong wind scoured prominent ridgelines, raised old skin tracks, and built fresh, thin wind slabs on some slopes. Wind speeds will increase from the W again this afternoon as another round of slabs begin to build. While most of these slides should not be large enough to bury people, they could knock you off your feet or carry you where you don't want to go. 

Yesterday, a professional reported a large natural wind slab that likely released Wednesday night. Similar slides are again possible late this afternoon and evening as a small but fierce storm brings 2-5" of snow and moderate to strong W and NW wind. Wind loading has pushed pause on our slowly improving stability. These freshly formed slabs extend into some middle-elevation terrain, increasing our odds of triggering a much larger Persistent Slab avalanche on some slopes. Professionals remain cautious about stepping into steep, consequential terrain, and for good reason. A strong slab over a weak snow setup exists in many areas. The uncertainty in predicting whether a slope is safe to ride is high, and the consequence of being wrong is severe. 

When faced with conditions like these, terrain management is our best tool. Utilizing lower-angled terrain, mostly sheltered from the wind, is a great baseline. If you choose to enter avalanche terrain, you can stack the odds in your favor by avoiding large avalanche paths and those with terrain traps such as creeks, trees, or gullies. 

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