Avalanche forecast

East Slopes South

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Mon
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 6 months ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

Stick to shaded, wind-sheltered terrain and slopes under 35 degrees. Warming temperatures are maintaining instability after a major wind event drifted slabs over widespread weak layers. Watch for wet avalanches on steep, sunny slopes and coming from overhead terrain. 

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2

    In wind-loaded areas, avalanches could be dangerously large and may break widely across terrain features or be triggered from a distance. Look for recent avalanches, textured snow, and thick, pillow-like drifts that highlight slopes of concern. Keep your distance from these features and stay well clear of cornices.  

    A major westerly wind event that stressed weak layers, warm temperatures, and sunny skies is prolonging the instability. In the past week, observers have reported collapses, long cracks, and propagating test results. Weak layers (facets and surface hoar) adjacent to crusts are 1-1.5 feet deep, widespread on a variety of slopes, and have been the source of multiple avalanches. 

    (2/22/2026)

    A small, remotely triggered avalanche in the Buillon Basin area, failing 14-16" deep on buried surface hoar.

    Photo: Sam Clairmont

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    This weekend is a return to warm, warm weather, although the East South zone might get a bit of high cloud coverage on Saturday. If you notice that you're beginning to sink into moistened snow, or you see fresh rollerballs falling down from cliff bands or your own equipment, mark that as a sign that this problem is turning on. Although avalanches will be small, there are plenty of exposed hazards in the terrain right now that you could be carried over, especially on southerly slopes. Lower elevation terrain, by and large, still does not have enough snow for this problem to be more than unlikely. This warming trend could even play a role in the release of a dry wind or persistent slab avalanche; however, these mechanics are not well understood.

    (2/5/2026)

    Wet loose slides on a sun-exposed slope originating in steep, rocky terrain. 

    Photo: Andy Harrington

Avalanche Discussion

Although none of the recent avalanche activity reported to us comes from the East South zone, we know similar snowpack structure exists. This includes surface hoar buried on 2/13, and weak faceted snow buried on 2/7. Weather stations in the zone picked up 1.2 inches of snow water equivalent this week, which could equate to around 1 foot of recent snow sitting on top. Where the wind has transported snow, the depth of overlaying slabs could be double that. Some photos of distant terrain in East South confirm that the recent strong-extreme west wind definitely impacted the zone.

Persistent slabs are tricky to manage in the backcountry, even with the best information, and East South has very little of it. If you plan to travel close to a neighboring zone, consider reading their forecast to outfit your toolbelt with more information. Other zones have seen a lot of action as recently as Friday. Ultimately, this problem is likely to stick around for a while, so settle in to finding fun riding on lower angle slopes while the snowpack heals.

Recent southerly flow helped precipitation accumulate in areas further east, bringing some accessibility to struggling sno parks back online. That said, the snowpack is still thin, particularly in the trees, at lower elevations, and on southerly slopes. Creeks, holes, and logs make routes convoluted or even impassable. Give yourself time to deal with our interminable "early season" conditions, and know that some hazards may be obscured by recent snow.

It takes a village to accurately forecast avalanches and create better forecast products for the community. Please let us know what you're seeing out there.

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