Avalanche forecast

Mount Shasta

Mount Shasta Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Today begins a stretch of inclement weather that will crescendo into the weekend. Above treeline, fresh wind slabs and poor visibility are the primary concerns. Near treeline, rain‑on‑snow may trigger small wet loose avalanches on steep slopes. Expected avalanche size for both problems is small, but the five red flags remain your best real‑time indicators of rising hazard. Changing weather should promote you to stay alert, read the terrain, and adjust plans as conditions evolve.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Wind slabs may develop as a small incoming storm brings new snow and moderate southerly wind. Keep your eyes open for fresh wind slabs on leeward slopes above treeline, especially on N–E aspects and in cross‑loaded gullies. These slabs will likely be shallow but could be sensitive during and shortly after snowfall. Evaluate wind‑loaded terrain carefully and avoid steep, extreme terrain features where instability is most likely.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Near treeline, a weak overnight refreeze and rain‑on‑snow today will keep the surface snowpack wet and unsupportive. Watch for wet loose instabilities like roller balls and pinwheels on steep slopes where the snow is saturated. Use small test slopes to gauge conditions and avoid steep, unsupported terrain features. Below treeline, snow coverage is insufficient for this avalanche problem.

Avalanche Discussion

Winter isn't over, gang! The weather is cringeworthy today and tomorrow, but temps will cool off this weekend with a decent dollop of precip on Saturday. We will see how things evolve with new snow amounts, snow levels, wind and visibility. Overall, it's not looking like a great weekend for summit attempts.  Powder skiing? Maybe! And please... thinking you can just "sneak" up to the summit during a break in the weather is poor judgment. This mindset has resulted in many search and rescue incidents over the years. Don't let yourself--or your thoughts--get lost in the clouds. Always carry navigation tools and know how to use them.

Weather aside, recent climbing hazards include icefall, rockfall, and firm, icy surfaces with slide-for-life potential.  A full mountaineering kit is non‑negotiable: 12‑point crampons (not microspikes), an ice axe, a helmet, and the skills to use them well. We can't stress it enough. Be prepared and know how to use your equipment. Have the courage to turn around if the weather, your skills, or anything else doesn't feel right. Managing risk means recognizing and correcting small issues early, before they compound into a situation with serious consequences. Obstacles continue to melt out at lower elevations and present an additional hazard, especially for skiers. Feel free to give us a call if you have questions about your trip - 530-926-9614. 

SATURDAY APRIL 11th - END OF SEASON --> Community Appreciation Party --> MOVED inside due to rain -->  From: Native Grounds Nursery To: Mountain Medics building at 2600 Spring Hill Road. Doors open at 4:00 pm - FREE food, FREE drink, FREE music --> You best be there and we love you Mount Shasta! Thank you for the continued support over all these years.

Our last forecast of the season will be on April 12th. While the doors of the avalanche center will close, the lights won't turn off. We will shift into climbing ranger mode and continue to post climbing updates, observations and avalanche hazard updates as the weather calls for it. Our website will remain your one-stop shop for all things weather, climbing and avalanche related, so come on back now!

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