Northern New Mexico

You can trigger persistent slab avalanches that fail on weak layers near the ground with the potential for these avalanches to be large taking with it most of the season's snowpack.  Heed the signs of unstable snow like audible collapses and shooting cracks on the surface, avoiding slopes where you find harder snow on the surface that may appear lens-shaped.  It remains possible to trigger an avalanche from a distance away so avoid being on or connected to slopes over 35 degrees.

With temperatures warming today, we may see small wet loose avalanches in steep terrain at lower elevations. These would be small and relatively harmless but could knock you off your feet in consequential terrain.  These types of slides typically start in steep terrain around rock bands.   

Pleasant weather is expected over the region for the next two days as a ridge of high pressure moves over the state.  Temperatures today will climb well above freezing into the upper 30's and 40's with light SW winds.  High clouds overhead will push in this afternoon.  With warm temperatures, we may see the snow surface becoming wet at lower elevations.  Watch for roller balls, and the snow surface becoming wet in steep terrain.  An active weather pattern returns Monday as a series of more promising-looking storms impacts our area next week. 

It's now been close to three weeks since our last significant storm in the middle of January, with smaller storms only bringing 4" of snow to our mountains over this time period.  Avalanche activity has been hard to come by in the last couple of weeks but faceted weak layers and depth hoar continue to remain slow to heal in areas where the snowpack remains shallow.  Moderate to strong winds over this time period has helped keep slabs on the surface stiff enough that weak layers below remain reactive even without significant loading.  

Near treeline terrain where slabs are softer and weak layers are not as deeply buried are where you're more likely to find places to trigger an avalanche near the ground. Leeward sides of ridgelines and steep convex rollovers and rocky terrain are slopes to be approached with caution.  Above treeline is where you'll find deeper snowpacks and harder slabs from previous wind events. In this terrain where the snowpack is deeper, weaker layers near the ground have been showing signs of healing and strengthening and it most likely will take you finding a "sweet spot" in likely trigger points on the margins of the slab, near rock outcrops, and below cliff bands.  Below treeline the avalanche danger is LOW but that doesn't mean that there is no avalanche danger.  Open exposed slopes at this elevation are where you're more likely to find cohesive slabs resting on top of very weak faceted snowpack.  On some northerly slopes at this elevation where finding a faceting snowpack throughout that will become problematic once we get more snow and introduce more of a slab on top.

The snowpack continues to remain hard to fully trust and is leading me to be cautious in stepping out into more consequential terrain.  A poor snowpack structure on many slopes and continued reactive layers in pits are very much a concern. Yet avalanche activity has greatly diminished over the last several weeks, which includes large explosives during control work.  This setup is a challenging one and hard to fully understand why human-triggered avalanches have been hard to come by.   Although weak layers in shallow snowpacks have been weakening and continuing to facet, so to have slabs and without any significant loading slopes may just need a little extra weight and better communicating slabs to help tip the scales.  In the meantime, I'll be approaching slopes with a conservative mindset as the consequences continue to remain quite high if you were to trigger a slide. 

With the potential of more promising storms next week, the focus on some slopes will shift to weak layers that have been forming on the surface from near-surface facets and faceted crusts.  Our Depth hoar and faceted layers near the ground in shallow snowpacks and below treeline will also face another test as we introduce a load and a more reactive slab on top.  We more than likely will see avalanche danger rise with these storms as I don't expect it to take much for these weak layers to become more reactive.