Avalanche forecast

Togwotee Pass

Bridger-Teton Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
No rating
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Highlights

New snow today will add stress to an existing weak layer buried 1-2' down. The added weight may make triggering an avalanche on this layer possible today, especially above 8,000'. If new snow and wind exceed the forecasted amounts of 2-4", expect avalanche conditions to become more dangerous, though natural avalanches will remain unlikely. Keep an eye on the weather and a closer eye on the terrain and snowpack that you are riding. 

Remotely triggered avalanche near Pinnacle Buttes

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    This zone has persistent weak layers buried 2-3 feet deep on most middle and upper-elevation slopes. The stout crust and facet layers that formed and were buried following St Patrick's Day will begin to be tested today. This weak interface seems to have become less reactive over the past two days of warm temperatures and sunshine but caution in steep terrain is advisable today.  Avalanche activity on this crust was most reactive around 8,000 and 9,500' on east aspects with many remotely triggered D1-2 slides observed in the Tetons and Greys zones. Other layers here in Togwotee have been triggered recently as well. There are a number of question marks regarding these buried weak layers  which makes today (and this weekend) a good time to be conservative in the terrrain until this layer shows it's true colors.

     

     

    (3/27/2023)

    Avalanche triggered from a low-angle ridgeline in adjoining steep terrain on a NE aspect around 10,000'.

    Photo: Antonioli

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    1–2

    The wind has plenty of ammunition in the form of new snow available for transport to craft slabs. Expect to find some stiff or hard wind slabs in exposed terrain, and some of these may remain reactive and be buried beneath further snowfall over the next several days. Monday night's new snow and wind produced some natural avalanche activity, and stronger winds yesterday may have built more slabs. Though not huge, these wind slabs could be sensitive to your weight and are stressing the buried weak layers described in Problem 1 above. The easiest way to avoid this hazard is to recognize this problem and avoid slopes steeper than 35 degrees. If you see cracks shooting out from your skis or sled or feel hollow, drum-like, or chalky snow, you've found a wind slab. 

    It is worth noting that continued snowfall into the spring will build cornices that may behave in unpredictable ways. Steer clear of being beneath or directly above these features; skin or sled on rocks, trees, and whatever clues you into the fact that you are anchored to the ground, and not floating on the back of one of these monsters. 

     

    (3/27/2023)

    Avalanche triggered from a low-angle ridgeline in adjoining steep terrain on a NE aspect around 10,000'.

Avalanche Discussion

Warm temps yesterday dampened snow and made yet another crust  to deal with today. The settlement and melt (up to 3 inches at some weather stations yesterday) helped to lock down the upper snowpack in the lower and warmer elevations. Other colder and higher areas, such as those that would make for better skiing and riding conditions today, settled and melted less and therefore may remain more reactive today.  It's tempting to think that low avalanche danger exists now due to the settlement and time lapsed since those natural and remotely triggered avalanches occurred three to four days ago, but several factors work against that assumption. The wide variability in the upper snowpack, the increasingly volatile nature of these Pacific weather systems, combined with reduced visibility, create the kind of conditions where a wait and see approach seems right.  Stepping out into big terrain seems like it should wait a while.

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