Avalanche forecast

Stevens Pass

Northwest Avalanche Center
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Avalanche danger

Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Out of date — this forecast expired 3 years ago. You’re viewing past conditions, not the current bulletin.

Highlights

You can trigger avalanches where you find wind drifted snow at middle and upper elevations. Steer around freshly drifted pillows of snow just below ridges. Expect a significant increase in avalanche danger for Saturday night into Sunday.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Watch for triggering small slab avalanches in freshly drifted snow on leeward sides of ridges. Steer around drifts and wind-loaded slopes steeper than 35 degrees. You can use a pole to feel for stiffer, wind-transported snow and deeper drifts.  You may find 6" of recent snow at upper elevations and drifted slabs up to 1.5 feet deep.

     You could trigger avalanches on a range of leeward and wind-exposed slopes. East and southeasterly winds may form shallow, fresh slabs on Saturday. You may still be able to trigger older slabs formed Thursday and Friday from westerly winds. Expect heavy snow to begin late afternoon into Saturday evening.

    (12/7/2023)

    A shallow crown (20cm) from a small triggered wind slab avalanche in the East North zone.  Spire Gulley, NE, 7,300ft

Avalanche Discussion

You may find that conditions change quickly with deeper snow at higher elevations. Low elevation accumulations of a few inches will quickly give way to 6-10" at middle to upper elevation. This is sitting on the December 6th interface of melt forms. After the deluge of December 4-5th, the snowpack has finally seen a solid freeze. You may still find unfrozen, wet snow in the middle to lower half of the snowpack. 

Looking just past this forecast, expect very dangerous avalanche conditions to develop Saturday night into Sunday, with another round of intense snow followed by warming and possibly rain. Snowfall could favor both east and west sides of the pass. Decent snow accumulations are likely in the low valleys east of the Cascade Crest. The question will be, "How much warming and rain will come after the dry snow?"

From  11/30-12/6, the Schmidt Haus weather station recorded nearly 8.5" of water equivalent; over half of that fell as rain starting on the 3rd. Throughout this event, observers reported numerous avalanches of size D1-1.5 with some up to D2. They started as dry slabs and then wet avalanches, with the change to rain on the 3rd. Regardless of whether wet or dry, avalanches were running on the November 30th interface of surface hoar and/or facets over a slick crust. Numerous wet avalanches ran on December 4- 6th, with some running to the ground and entraining dirt. 

If you get out, please let us know what you found by submitting an observation.

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