Avalanche Forecast

Wednesday night: Mainly clear. Light variable winds increasing and shifting southwest.

Thursday: Increasingly cloudy with scattered flurries developing late in the day and bringing up to 5 cm of new snow by morning. Light to moderate southwest winds, becoming strong at ridgetop. Alpine high temperatures around -7 to -8

Friday: Mainly cloudy with lingering isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Light to moderate southwest winds. Alpine high temperatures around -7, closer to -5 in the south of the region.

Saturday: Cloudy with scattered flurries developing later in the day and bringing up to 5 cm of new snow by morning. Light to moderate south or southwest winds. Alpine high temperatures around -6 in the north of the region, closer to -3 in the south. 

A widespread avalanche cycle was observed across the region on Friday and Saturday. Avalanches were reported to be running to valley-bottom in the north of the region, failing on the weak layer described in the snowpack summary below.

The possibility for large human-triggered persistent slab avalanches remains a very serious concern at higher elevations in the northern half of the region (e.g., Duffey, Hurley, etc.). See this MIN report of an avalanche involvement on Monday for an example of the issue at hand.

Given our current snowpack structure, we recommend very conservative route-finding and decision making in higher elevation avalanche terrain in the north of the region.

Over 120 cm of snow accumulated in the south of the region with the recent storm and over 40 cm in the north of the region. This snow is likely gaining strength as the days pass but snowpack conditions found beneath this layer are variable over the region and in some areas highly problematic.

In the north of the region, the above-mentioned storm snow has brought a critical load to a now deeply buried weak layer composed of sugary faceted grains and hard melt-freeze crust from mid-November. This structure is a recipe for large and destructive avalanches and a problem that may persist for weeks to months. This problematic layer is largely absent in the south of the region.

• Don't let the desire for deep powder pull you into high consequence terrain.
• Persistent slabs have potential to pull back to lower angle terrain.
• Avoid steep convexities or areas with a thin, rocky, or variable snowpack.
• Carefully evaluate steep lines for wind slabs.