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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 2nd, 2020–Jan 3rd, 2020

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Most of the region will see more rain than snow on Friday. Danger will be HIGH in areas where precipitation accumulates as snow, elsewhere wet loose avalanches are the main concern.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to rapidly fluctuating freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT: 10-20 cm of snow before the snow levels rise to 1500 m, then heavy rain continues overnight into Friday morning (60 mm), moderate to strong wind from the south, treeline temperatures around +2 C.

FRIDAY: Heavy rain in the morning, light rain midday, then back to heavy rain in the late afternoon (bringing 24 hour totals to 60-100 mm), heavy snowfall possible above 1500 m, strong wind from the south, treeline temperatures around +3 C.

SATURDAY: Storm continues with freezing level dropping to 700 m by Saturday morning, as rain transitions back to snow expect of 20-40 cm of new snow by Saturday afternoon, moderate wind from the southwest, treeline temperatures around -2 C.

SUNDAY: Another storm pulse brings 20-30 cm of snow, moderate wind from the south, freezing level around 700 m with treeline temperatures around -2 C.

Avalanche Summary

Heavy rain will create the potential for wet loose avalanches at most elevations, while thick storm slabs will likely form in the highest peaks of the region. A few small wet loose avalanches were reported in steep terrain on Wednesday.

Snowpack Summary

The current storm is expected to deliver 10-20 cm of snow to the North Shore mountains on Thursday night before freezing levels rise and heavy rain soaks the snowpack. Heavy accumulations of wet snow are possible in terrain above 1500 m, resulting in the formation of touchy storm slabs. Snowpack depths near treeline currently range from 140-180 cm, and the snowpack diminishes rapidly with elevation.

Terrain and Travel

  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.
  • Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from rain.
  • Dial back your terrain choices if you are seeing more than 30 cm of new snow.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.