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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 3rd, 2022–Feb 4th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

Use extra caution at treeline where triggering the current persistent weak layer is most likely.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Weather Forecast

Thursday night: light snowfall and moderate west winds. Low of -4 at 1500m. 

Friday: stormy with up to 25cm of snow. Strong southwest winds with extreme gusts. Freezing levels rising to 1300m.

Saturday: some light flurries with light to moderate northwest winds. High of -2 at 1500m.

Sunday: clear skies and no new snow expected. Light to moderate southwest winds. Freezing level rising to 1400m.

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday in the north of the region one skier remote size one was reported. This avalanche was on a northeast aspect at 1700m and is believed to have failed on the surface hoar and facet layer down 30cm from late January.

On Tuesday, there was a report of a small (size 1) human-triggered avalanche that released in the recent snow on a convex feature at upper treeline elevations near Pemberton. 

In the neighbouring Sea to Sky region, we received a report of a large (size 2.5) human-triggered avalanche near Rainbow Mountain that caught and carried a group of five skiers. The avalanche released on north aspect at 1900 m. It broke 40 cm deep on the late January facet-crust layer. The avalanche propagated across adjacent roll-over features and triggered a sympathetic slide on a small feature 200 m away.

On Sunday, observers in the north of the region reported large (size 2) natural avalanches releasing in the storm snow near Dark Side Lake (see this MIN and this MIN).

Snowpack Summary

New snow accompanied by strong southwest winds will form new storm and wind slabs at all elevations. Wind slabs will likely be found on north and east aspects.

15 to 40cm sits above a variety of surfaces including surface hoar, facets and a crust. This layer is most prominent at treeline and above. Especially in the Duffy area.

Deeper in the snowpack, it is possible to find a crust/facet layer from December that is buried down 100-150 cm. This layer is most prominent between 1700-2100 m and is currently classified as dormant; although large loads such as a cornice failure or avalanches in motion may still be able to trigger avalanches on this layer.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid freshly wind loaded features, especially near ridge crests, roll-overs and in steep terrain.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried weak layers.
  • Remote triggering is a concern, avoid terrain where triggering slopes from below is possible
  • Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.