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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 13th, 2022–Jan 14th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

Finding sheltered, simple terrain to ride around treeline will be the safest way to find good snow. The avalanche danger will increase through the day as new snow accumulates. If your area gets more than 30 cm of new snow in 24 hours, increase the hazard to High.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the track & intensity of the incoming weather system. We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

Thursday Night: Cloudy. 0-5 cm of snow expected. Moderate south winds, trending to strong southwest at higher elevations. Freezing level around 1500 m.

Friday: Cloudy. Snowfall 5-20 cm of snow expected. Possibly 30 cm or more around Kitimat. Strong south wind, trending to extreme at higher elevations. Freezing level around 1200 m. 

Friday overnight and Saturday: Mostly cloudy. 20-30 cm of snow expected. Extreme southwest wind, trending to strong through the day. Freezing level around 1000 m. 

Sunday: Cloudy. 5-15 cm of snow expected. Strong southwest wind, trending to extreme at higher elevations. Freezing level around 1000 m. 

Avalanche Summary

Remember that a lack of observed avalanches does not necessarily mean that there is a lack of avalanche activity. If you are getting out in the backcountry, and have conditions information, or even just good vibes and good photos to share, consider making a post on the Mountain Information Network (MIN). 

On Tuesday and Wednesday, the natural cycle had tapered off but a few natural wind slabs were still being observed throughout the region. 

Skiers and explosives were triggering touchy storm slab avalanches on Tuesday mainly up to size 2. This MIN report describes a natural and a skier triggered avalanche west of Terrace. At lower elevations, natural wet slabs and loose wet avalanches have been widespread.

Snowpack Summary

By the end of the day on Friday, expect to see up to 25 cm of new storm snow (or possibly 30-40 cm around Kitimat). This new snow falls with continuing south and southwest wind, potentially increasing the reactivity of storm slabs in lee features. 

50-100 cm below the snow surface, Faceting from the prolonged cold temperatures may increase the chance of a storm slab in motion stepping down to the previous storm interface.  

The early December rain crust is up to 10 cm thick, down 100-200 cm in the snowpack, and exists to an average of 1400 m in elevation. While this layer had generally gone dormant in the region through the cold period, it still has the possibility of waking up and will be tested this week with the forecast warming event and ongoing snow accumulation. 

Extra caution is necessary while the snowpack undergoes substantial warming after a prolonged period of cold conditions. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Watch for changing conditions today, storm slabs may become increasingly reactive.
  • Dial back your terrain choices if you are seeing more than 30 cm of new snow.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried persistent weak layers.
  • Extra caution for areas experiencing rapidly warming temperatures for the first time.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.