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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 21st, 2022–Jan 22nd, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Inland.

Watch for changing conditions as a rise in temperature tests the upper snowpack. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Friday Overnight: Cloudy, trace amounts of new snow. Strong to extreme southwest winds. Freezing level around 1200m.

Saturday: Partially cloudy, trace now snow. Moderate to extreme southwest winds. Freezing levels rising to 1500m.

Sunday: Mainly cloudy, up to 5 cm of new snow. Moderate to strong westerly winds. Freezing level around 500m.

Monday: Partially cloudy. Light to moderate northwest winds. Freezing level around 500m.  

Avalanche Summary

One large natural avalanche was reported on Friday near Smithers, the details can be viewed in this MIN report. The avalanche appears to have failed on a buried weak layer. This seems like an isolated event but we are keeping our eyes on a few weak layers in the upper snowpack with the warm temperatures and potential for some solar radiation tomorrow. 

Snowpack Summary

On Thursday, 10- 20 cm of new snow fell with strong southwest wind, which formed wind slabs in lee areas in wind-exposed terrain. Below around 1200 m, this snow landed on a hard melt-freeze crust.

Today, warming temperatures compounded by strong solar radiation may create loose wet avalanches on steep solar aspects, which have the potential to step down to buried weak layers and entrain a significant amount of mass. 

Two weak layers may exist. First is a layer of surface hoar that may be found around 30 cm deep. To date, this layer has produced avalanches in the centre and north of the region and not the south, though it has been found in the south. Next, a widespread layer of faceted grains is found around 30 to 60 cm deep, which formed during the cold spell in late December and early January. These layers have been most reactive in the central portion of the region.

In thin snowpack areas, the base of the snowpack is composed of weak faceted grains around various melt-freeze crusts, which are considered dormant at this time.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and wind exposure.
  • Be careful as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, or solar radiation is strong.
  • If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.