Dashboard Regions Weather Stations Radar Alerts Glossary
Contact About
Log In

Register for an account and never miss a forecast again!

Register

Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 28th, 2022–Jan 29th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Purcells.

It may still be possible to trigger large avalanches on deeply buried weak layers. Be careful with your terrain selection, especially around steep, rocky terrain.

Confidence

High - We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT: Clear skies with no precipitation, 20 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -5 C.

SATURDAY: Clear skies with no precipitation, 20 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -7 C.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 2 to 5 cm, 30 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -7 C.

MONDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, 40 km/h west wind, alpine temperature -10 C.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed on Thursday.

Avalanche activity on the early-December weak layer described in the snowpack summary has been sporadic over the past few weeks. We tend to see reports of avalanches on this layer every few days, being triggered naturally from the weather or occasionally by riders. Most of the avalanches occurred at elevations around 2000 m. Possible natural triggers include daytime warming, warming from the sun, cornice falls, or smaller avalanches stepping down. Human triggering is most likely in steep, rocky slopes with a shallow or thin-to-thick snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

Surface hoar crystals are found in sheltered areas and a melt-freeze crust on solar aspects. These will be important layers to track once buried by new snow. Alpine terrain has variable wind effect. 

Some older thin surface hoar layers are 20-40 cm deep, but have not been producing concerning results in recent snowpack tests. 

The most notable layer of concern in the snowpack is a facet/crust layer that formed in early December and ranges in depth between 70 cm along the shallower eastern Purcells and up to 150 cm in the western Purcells.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
  • Avalanche hazard may have improved, but be mindful that deep instabilities are still present.
  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.