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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 9th, 2022–Jan 10th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Recently formed wind slabs are found in virtually all terrain. Human triggering is likely. Conservative terrain choices are in order.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Monday will be mainly sunny with a high of -5C. Winds continue to be strong from the SW. No precip expected on Monday.

Avalanche Summary

The strong winds did arrive, but the predicted natural avalanche cycle did not.....at least not yet. Forecasters were surprised at the lack of natural avalanche activity, but given the large amount of recent snow and the strong winds, human-triggered avalanches are likely.

Snowpack Summary

The strong westerly winds have redistributed the recent snow onto lee and cross-loaded terrain. West aspects have been stripped down to bare rock. Wind slabs exist at all elevations and average around 30cm deep at treeline. Forecasters were surprised that these new slabs were not reactive to ski cutting, but in different areas it is quite likely that these slabs are reactive to human triggering. The Dec crust, now down 120 to 150cm, remains on the radar as a potentially serious persistent weak layer.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
  • Be careful with wind slabs, especially in steep, unsupported and/or convex terrain features.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a persistent slab.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.