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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 7th, 2022–Jan 8th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

Recently formed wind slabs will likely remain touchy on Saturday. Assess for slab formation prior to committing to consequential terrain.

Confidence

High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with no precipitation, 30 km/h west wind, alpine temperature -15 C.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 cm, 30 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -12 C.

SUNDAY: Early-morning snowfall then clear skies, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, 20 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature rising to 0 C, freezing level rising to 2100 m.

MONDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 10 cm, 30 km/h south wind, alpine temperature -3 C, freezing level 1200 m.

Avalanche Summary

Many storm and wind slab avalanches were triggered naturally, by riders, and explosives on Friday. The slabs were generally 30 to 40 cm thick, with the most reactive slabs found in lee terrain features. 

Avalanche activity is expected to decrease into Saturday, although it may remain possible for humans to trigger similar slabs.

Snowpack Summary

Around 20 cm of snow fell on Thursday night, which formed wind slabs in lee terrain features due to strong southerly wind. Storm slabs may still exist in terrain sheltered from the wind. Below about 1200 m, the precipitation fell as rain, producing a hard melt-freeze crust. This recent precipitation adds to the 100+ cm of snow that has fallen since January 1, which may overly sugary faceted grains that formed during the cold spell in late December.

Around 150 to 250 cm deep, a weak layer of faceted grains may be found above a melt-freeze crust that formed in early December. The layer is most prominent between 1700 and 2100 m. The last observed avalanche on this layer was around December 24, suggesting that this layer has become dormant. The most likely place to trigger it would be in thin, rocky snowpack areas.

The lower snowpack is well-settled and strong.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.