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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 7th, 2022–Feb 8th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Glacier.

Spotty distribution of the Jan 29th surface hoar, along with surprise avalanche incidents amongst snow professionals, should create uncertainty in the minds of all.

Keep your terrain choices conservative while we deal with persistent weaknesses.

Weather Forecast

Mod to Extreme gusty winds tonight, leaving behind cloudy conditions, scattered flurries, and rising temps for Wed/Thurs

Tonight: Cloudy, Alp low -9*C, mod/gusting extreme W winds

Tues: Cloudy, scattered flurries, 5cm, Alp high -6*C, FZL 1300m, mod SW winds

Wed: Cloudy, trace snow, Alp high -1*C, FZL 1600m, mod W winds

Snowpack Summary

The Jan 29 surface hoar (5-15mm in sheltered areas) and sun crust (steep solar) is buried 50-80cm. Warmth on Sunday consolidated the overlying snow, creating touchy slabs in shady/sheltered areas like the Bonney Moraines. Wind slabs are now widespread and at all elevations after Monday's winds. The Dec 1 crust/facet combo is down 1.5-2.5m.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous sz 1-1.5 and several sz 2-2.5 point release avalanches on Sunday out of steep, rocky, sun exposed terrain, as well as a skier triggered sz 1.5 storm slab in the Pearly Rock area from a thin, rocky area.

Several skier controlled and skier accidentals occurred on N aspects in the Bonney Moraines (persistent slab) and Overlook Col (windslab).

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.