A new storm slab is developing. Watch for continued loading from the forecast new snow and wind this week.
Confidence
Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Flurries overnight are expected to bring 3-5 cm by Tuesday morning. Tuesday and Wednesday should be mostly dry with a chance of light flurries. The next storm should start early Thursday morning and at this time looks like it could bring 10-15 cm by Friday morning.
Avalanche Summary
Some soft slab storm snow avalanches were reported on Sunday. I suspect that new storm snow avalanches were easy to trigger on Monday where the new snow was sitting on a hard crust and/or surface hoar that developed during the recent clear weather. Expect avalanche size to increase with incremental loading of the new storm slab later this week.
Snowpack Summary
Up to 30 cm of new snow overlies a variety of old surfaces. A crust formed last week at most elevations. In some places it was breakable in others it was supportive. A thin widespread layer of surface hoar lies above this crust. At the highest elevations the old surface was widely wind-affected. Deeper in the snowpack the mid-January surface hoar remains a concern. It can be found down between 40 and 100 cm. In some locations it has reportedly gained quite a bit of strength, but elsewhere it is still producing sudden (popping) failures in snowpack tests. This spatial variability means we'll have to keep an eye on it for a while yet. The mid-December surface hoar layer is now 80 to 140cm below the surface and has become unlikely to fail.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.