Avalanche forecast

South Columbia

Feb 11 – 12, 2016Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Triggering large avalanches remains possible. Carefully evaluate conditions before venturing into bigger terrain.

Avalanche problems

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    3–5
    A deeply buried weak layer can still be triggered in some places, creating very large avalanches.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1–4
    Storm snow weaknesses in the upper snowpack, including surface hoar and crusts buried last week could be sensitive to human triggers. Slabs are expected to be particularly deep and touchy on wind-loaded slopes.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy with light snow bringing as much as 5cm throughout the day and another 5cm overnight. Freezing levels reaching 1700m and light southerly winds. SATURDAY: Mainly cloudy with continued light snowfall bringing another 1-3cm of accumulation. Freezing levels should drop to 1600m and winds are expected to be light from the southwest. SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy with continued light snowfall bringing another 1-3cm of accumulation. Freezing levels should drop to 1600m and winds are expected to be light from the southwest.

Avalanche Summary

Reports from Wednesday include limited results with explosives control producing only one Size 2.5 persistent slab avalanche releasing on the early-January surface hoar down 100cm in a lower elevation start zone where previous surface hoar growth was prevalent.

Snowpack Summary

A supportive surface crust is likely in most places aside from shaded aspects at treeline elevations, and lower elevations that are under melt-freeze conditions. New surface hoar could be covered by a skiff of fresh snow. This recently buried surface hoar is likely larger on sheltered shady slopes, but could be more sensitive where it is sitting on a crust. Recent snowpack tests have been producing easy to hard results in the top 25-35cm on storm snow weaknesses as well as buried surface hoar and crusts with associated facets. Avalanche professionals are still monitoring the persistent weakness buried early January, which is now down 80-120 cm. In most places it is no longer sensitive to light triggers. However, in specific locations it still produces hard, but sudden results in snowpack tests.

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