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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 30th, 2024–Jan 31st, 2024

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Banff Yoho Kootenay, Little Yoho, Banff, East Side 93N, Kootenay, Lake Louise, LLSA, Sunshine, West Side 93N, Field.

The Mt. Field and Mt. Stephen avalanche closure zones are CLOSED on Wednesday, January 31, 2024 for avalanche control.

A natural avalanche cycle is ongoing with many avalanches up to size 2.5 in the last 48 hrs. Freezing levels climb again Wednesday keeping the avalanche danger high. Avoid avalanche terrain until things cool down.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

Widespread avalanche activity has occurred over the past 48 hrs. Natural wet loose avalanches up to size 2 have been observed on all aspects below treeline and on some steep solar aspects at higher elevations. Natural and explosive triggered avalanches up to size 2.5 have been observed on all aspects at treeline and in the alpine failing on a variety of facet, crust and basal facet weak layers found in the snowpack. We expect this avalanche activity to continue on Wednesday.

Snowpack Summary

Rain and warm temperatures have soaked the snowpack up to 2200 m with moist surface snow even higher. Strong SW winds are creating wind slabs in alpine/treeline areas. Jan 19 facets from the cold snap are 10-30 cm deep, with the Dec 31 surface hoar/sun crust 30-50 cm deep. Two deteriorating crusts (Dec 22nd and Dec 5th) exist in the mid-pack up to 2300 m. The lower snowpack is comprised of weak facets and depth hoar in most areas. Treeline snow depths range from 70 -120 cm.

Weather Summary

After a cooling trend and some light flurries possible on Tuesday night, freezing levels are expected to climb as high as 2700 m by Wednesday afternoon with strong winds out of the SW. A mix of sun cloud will accompany the warm weather with sunny breaks increasing the effect of the warm weather on the snowpack.

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Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid areas where the snow feels stiff and/or slabby.
  • The likelihood of deep persistent slab avalanches will increase with each day of warm weather.
  • Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.