Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 15th, 2024–Jan 16th, 2024

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper, Brazeau, Churchill, Cirrus-Wilson, Fryatt, Icefields, Maligne, Marmot, Miette Lake, Pyramid.

Do not let the lack of avalanche activity lull you into a false sense of confidence. The recent and ongoing cold temperatures can have the affect of slowly destabilizing existing snowpack weaknesses yet the timing of this is difficult to establish.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Loose dry avalanches up to size 1.5 in very steep rocky alpine terrain were noted over the past few days. Some are scrubbing to ground. They do not appear to be initiating the existing windslabs or deep basal weaknesses.

Snowpack Summary

Treeline snowpack depth is an average of 45-75cm. Recent NW to NE winds have created windslab conditions on Southerly lee aspects. The top 20cm has two buried Surface Hoar layers predominantly located below 1700m. Near the ground is Depth Hoar and Facets.

Weather Summary

The Mountain Weather Forecast is available at Avalanche Canada https://avalanche.ca/weather/forecast

Terrain and Travel Advice

Approach lee and cross-loaded slopes with caution.
Loose avalanches may start small but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.

Problems

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.