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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 31st, 2024–Feb 1st, 2024

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Sea To Sky, Brandywine, Garibaldi, Homathko, Spearhead, Tantalus, Sky Pilot.

The hits keep coming. A mix of heavy snow and rain will maintain dangerous avalanche conditions on Thursday. Hunting for dry snow in the alpine will put you closest to harm's way.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A widespread avalanche cycle took place in the region over the weekend and through Monday, with numerous wet slab and wet loose avalanches to size 4 (very large) seen in a wide range of terrain. One report from Tuesday featured a size 4 with a crown fracture over 3 km long!

Looking forward, a switch to snowfall will reinvigorate surface instabilities Thursday. This and the sheer scale of recent natural activity should suggest a very cautious approach to terrain selection.

Snowpack Summary

30-40 cm of new snow may accumulate in the alpine by end of day Thursday, with amounts tapering at lower elevations. The new snow accumulates on a thin existing cover of new snow over newly formed crust above about 2000 m and on rain soaked snow below this elevation.

Below any new crust at treeline, and especially below treeline, the snowpack is largely isothermal.

The mid and lower snowpack consists of various old crusts and is generally well-settled and well-bonded.

Weather Summary

Wednesday night

Cloudy with wet flurries and a possible 10-20 cm of new snow accumulating in the alpine, rain below 1700 m. Southeast alpine winds 30 to 50 km/h.

Thursday

Cloudy with easing flurries bringing 10-20 cm of new snow above 1500 m. Southeast alpine winds 30 to 40 km/h. Treeline temperature around 0°C with freezing level around 1600 m.

Friday

Mostly cloudy with flurries continuing from overnight bringing 10-20 total cm of new snow. South alpine winds 10 to 30 km/h. Treeline temperature -1°C with freezing level around 1400 m.

Saturday

A mix of sin and cloud. Alpine winds shifting northerly, 5-10 km/h. Treeline temperature -1°C with freezing level around 1400 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Keep in mind that wet avalanches can be destructive due to their high density.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.