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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 26th, 2024–Jan 27th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Badshot-Battle, Central Selkirk, Goat, Kokanee, Retallack, Valhalla, Whatshan.

Buried weak layers may become increasingly reactive with rising temperatures this weekend. Be ready to dial back your terrain choices Saturday if freezing levels rise above treeline.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Wind slabs and persistent slabs have been reactive in recent days, both naturally and to human triggers. Slabs have shown high sensitivity with wide propagation and remote triggers, averaging size 1.5-2, but up to size 3 (very large).

Snowpack Summary

30-50 cm of recent snow sits on facets formed during the mid January cold snap. At upper elevations, this snow has been redistributed by wind.

A few layers of note exist in the mid snowpack. Another crust/facet/surface hoar layer buried in early January is now 60-90 cm deep. A layer of surface hoar buried in early December is now 130+ cm deep. This layer is of most concern above 2000 m where a robust crust doesn't exist above it.

Weather Summary

Friday night

Mostly cloudy with flurries bringing around 5 cm of new snow. Southwest alpine wind 40-50 km/h. Treeline temperature -3 °C.

Saturday

Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries brining up to 5 cm of new snow. Southwest alpine wind 30-40 km/h. Treeline temperature 0 °C. Freezing level 1700 m.

Sunday

5-10 mm of mixed precip then a mix of sun and cloud. Southwest alpine wind 40-50 km/h. Treeline temperature +1 °C. Freezing level 2300 m.

Monday

Mostly cloudy with around 10 mm of mixed precip. Southwest alpine wind 30-40 km/h. Treeline temperature +3 °C. Freezing level 3000 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Keep in mind that human triggering potential persists as natural avalanching tapers off.
  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
  • Extra caution for areas experiencing rapidly warming temperatures for the first time.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.