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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 26th, 2020–Nov 27th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Fresh wind slabs may be found at mountaintop, where strong southwest winds load new snow into lee terrain features. Elsewhere, rain saturates the upper snowpack.

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

Thursday night: Snow turning to rain, 5-10 mm accumulation, moderate to strong west wind, freezing level rising to 1500 m.

Friday: 5-15 mm rain, strong southwest wind, freezing level 1500 m.

Saturday: 30 mm rain overnight then clearing, light west wind, freezing level dropping to 1000 m.

Sunday: Clear, moderate southwest wind, freezing level 1800 m.

Avalanche Summary

Small loose wet avalanches up to size 1 were observed on south to west aspects on Wednesday afternoon. Small loose wet activity may be observed on all aspects as rain saturates the snowpack over the next couple of days.

Our eyes and ears in the mountains are limited at this time of year and may continue this winter due to fewer professional observations. If you see anything while out in the field, please consider sharing it with us and fellow recreationists via the Mountain Information Network (MIN). Even just a photo of where you went is helpful. A big thank you to those that have already shared their observations thus far.

Snowpack Summary

Rainfall saturates the upper snowpack on all but the tops of the tallest peaks in the region. Above 1400 m, up to 25 cm may accumulate through the day Friday amid strong west winds, forming wind slabs in lee features.

Snowpack depth rapidly changes with elevation. The snowline has been reported to be around 900 m. The snowpack rapidly jumps to around 100 cm deep above 1000 m and between 150 to 200 cm near the mountain tops.

Numerous melt-freeze crusts and ice layers exists in the snowpack and reports indicate that the surrounding snow is well-bonded to them.

Terrain and Travel

  • Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind or rain.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Be cautious of buried obstacles especially below treeline.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.