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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 7th, 2020–Dec 8th, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Rain continues to thrash and saturate the snowpack, a wet loose hazard will persist as long as the snowpack is moist or wet.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to rapidly fluctuating freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

MONDAY NIGHT: Continuing rain, 30-50 mm / Strong, south ridgetop wind / alpine low temperature +2 / Freezing level spiking above 2500 m

TUESDAY: Rain and wet snow, 20-30 mm / Strong decreasing to moderate, west-southwest ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature +5 / Freezing level dropping to 1600 m

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries / Light, northwest ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature +3 / Freezing level 1300 m

THURSDAY: Cloudy with flurries, 5 cm / Light, gusty southeast ridgetop wind / alpine high temperature +2 / Freezing level 1200 m

Avalanche Summary

The last avalanche observations are from Wednesday Nov 2 when numerous slab and loose wet avalanches were reported at treeline elevations and associated with rapid warming. Then, on Thursday, several glide cracks opened up on the North Shore Mountains.

Have you been out and about in the mountains? If so please submit to the Mountain Information Network (MIN). It doesn't have to be technical it can be as simple as a photo. Photos are especially helpful! Sending out a big thank you to the already submitted MIN's this season. Thanks everyone!

Snowpack Summary

Around 30 mm rain fell on the North Shore Mountains by Monday afternoon and upwards of 30-50 mm is forecasted into Tuesday. A wet and warm snowpack persists due to heavy rain saturating the snowpack at all elevations.

Prior to the storm, snowpack depth varied rapidly with elevation, approximately 100 cm in the trees up to 150-200 cm near mountain tops.

Terrain and Travel

  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
  • Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy rain.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.