Avalanche forecast

South Columbia

Dec 12 – 13, 2011Avalanche Canada
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Avalanche danger

Wed
Thu
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low
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Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1–3
    Hard windslabs linger in isolated lee locations in the alpine.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    2–5
    Difficult to trigger, but with high consequences. Weaker thin spots on convexities or around protruding rocks/clumps of small trees may be likely trigger locations.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Tuesday & Wednesday: A weak ridge is giving a couple more dry days. Expect light westerly winds and daytime highs of -5 under clear skies or high cloud. Thursday: Clouds are likely to develop in the morning with a chance of light flurries throughout the day. Continued westerly winds with daytime temperatures climbing to -5.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

3-5cm of new snow has fallen in the past couple of days. This overlies surface hoar (as large as 20mm in protected areas), surface facets, the odd old windslab and sun crusts (on steep south through west aspects). The new snow has fallen with limited winds effect. All of these newly buried surfaces are good sliding interfaces; all that's lacking is a large enough load. As more snow arrives and/or the wind picks up (as per the forecast) the avalanche danger will increase. Due to the slow, incremental increase in load (dribs and drabs of new snow and sporadic winds), this increase in danger is difficult to pinpoint and could be very site specific.In some locations there is a rain crust buried between 20-35cm. This crust extends as high as 2200m. Some faceting has been observed around the crust; definitely worth remembering this one.The early November surface hoar remains a layer of concern. Buried 100-150cm it is unlikely to trigger, but consequences of triggering would be a large (up to size 3.0) destructive avalanche.

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