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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 17th, 2021–Dec 18th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

The incoming storm will reach it's peak Saturday afternoon, expect a natural avalanche cycle around that time.

Uncertainty surrounds the effect of this storm on the Dec. 1st persist weak layer, give large avalanche terrain a miss until this plays out.

Weather Forecast

A warm front will hit our area early Saturday morning, bringing snowfall, warming temps, and strong winds.

Tonight: Clear periods. Alpine low -19*C. Light S ridge winds

Saturday: Snow (22cm).  High -9*C. Strong SW winds

Sunday: Sunny periods, a few flurries. Low -15*C, High -9*C. Light N winds

Monday: Mostly sunny.  Low -22*C, High -13*C. Light SW wind

Snowpack Summary

Incoming new snow will fall on previously facetted low density snow. The Dec 1 crust is ~10cm thick, buried a ranging depth of 50-100cm, and can be found up to 2300m. Signs of facetting have been found above and below this crust, particularly in shallow snowpack areas at and just below treeline.

Avalanche Summary

A few small-large natural avalanches where observed in the highway corridor on Friday, these were failing as loose dry and thin soft slab avalanches. 

Snowpack tests continue to give sporadic sudden results on the Dec. 1st crust, particularly in shallower snowpack areas at Treeline.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.