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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 3rd, 2021–Jan 4th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Wind slabs continue to dominate the landscape due to persistent strong winds. Skier triggering of the these wind slabs is likely.

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

Our weather stations are experiencing technical difficulties. Troubleshooting is in progress.

Monday will be mainly cloudy with light flurries and temperatures reaching -5C. The winds are relentless and will continue to be strong from the SW for the next couple of days. Some models are calling for steady snowfalls with accumulations near 20cm by Wednesday. Stay tuned.....

Avalanche Summary

Observations were somewhat limited today, but nothing new was noted.

Snowpack Summary

10 to 15cm of snow fell in the past 24 hours adding to the 5 to 10cm from Saturday. Unfortunately, the winds have been strong out of the SW during much of the snowfall which has led to widespread new wind slab development in Alpine and Treeline areas. It has been a very windy couple of weeks, so the upper snowpack mainly consists of several "generations" of wind slab. Conditions vary extensively across the region, so take the time to dig down and evaluate the snowpack. The mid pack is relatively strong and well settled for December. Forecasters continue to monitor the Nov crust layer buried deeply in the snowpack. This layer has been occasionally active, producing large avalanches, but has remained quiet in recent days. Shallow snowpack areas, or transitioning from thick to thin snow depths are the most likely areas to trigger the deeper instability.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid areas where the snow feels stiff and/or slabby.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and wind exposure.
  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.