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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 20th, 2021–Jan 21st, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

The avalanche danger is dropping, but keep in mind the potential for some unstable snow in steep alpine terrain.

Confidence

High - We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy, light northwest wind, treeline temperatures drop to -10 C.

THURSDAY: Mix of sun and cloud with morning fog, light northwest wind, treeline temperatures around -8 C.

FRIDAY: Sunny, light wind, treeline temperatures around -10 C.

SATURDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light west wind, treeline temperature around -12 C.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been observed, although there is still lots of visible evidence from the widespread avalanche cycle that occurred on Jan 13. The snowpack has stabilized dramatically since then, leaving us with some lingering concerns about wind slabs and cornices.

Snowpack Summary

A variety of wind affected surfaces covers alpine and upper treeline terrain, while a hard crust is found up to 1800 m and higher on solar slopes. Soft pockets of redistributed snow may hide in sheltered areas. A solid mid-pack sits above some crust and facet layers near the bottom of the snowpack (150-200 cm deep). These deeper weaknesses have periodically produced large avalanches during intense storms (mostly in extreme alpine terrain), but have otherwise been unreactive.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.
  • Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.