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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 11th, 2023–Dec 12th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Watch for signs of reactivity from a buried surface hoar layer that is at the ideal depth for human triggering at tree line and in the alpine, factor this into your terrain decisions.

Good riding can be found in conservative terrain above tree line.

Early season hazards are still prevalent at lower elevations, travel with caution.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanche activity has tapered since the weekend's snowfall. However, human triggering remains a concern on slopes that have not already avalanched.

On Friday a group remotely triggered a size 2 avalanche on a steep rocky roll from 20m away along the ridge near Balu Pass.

Snowpack Summary

25-45cm of recent snow sits on top of a rain crust up to 2100m.

Surface hoar is buried down 60-80cm and continues to give 'sudden' results in snowpack tests and whumpfs in untraveled terrain.

The base of the snowpack is facetted at upper elevations.

The height of snow at treeline is ~130cm, which is below average for this time of year, watch out for early-season hazards.

Weather Summary

A ridge of high pressure will give calm dry weather mid week with light winds and no appreciable precip until Thursday.

Tuesday: Sun and cloud, winds light from SW, high of -2 °C, freezing level 1400m.

Wednesday: Sun and cloud, isolated flurries, winds light to moderate from SW, low -6 °C high of -2 °C, freezing level 1400m.

Thursday: Up to 8cm is forecast with light winds, low -6 °C.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Loose avalanches may start small but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.
  • Early season avalanches at any elevation have the potential to be particularly dangerous due to obstacles that are exposed or just below the surface.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.