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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 3rd, 2024–Jan 4th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Incoming snow will arrive with cool-ish temps. Expect sluffing and loose/dry avalanches to increase in frequency and size later on Thursday.

The snowpack is at record low levels with many hazards above or just below the surface. Allow extra time for your descent and exit.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed the last 3 days. The weekend saw warm temps trigger a loose, wet avalanche cycle. One of these avalanches stepped down to the Dec 1st surface hoar layer, triggering a large slab avalanche. This is indicative that a large load, or a smaller load in a shallow, faceted zone, can step down to the deep, persistent weak layers in the snowpack.

Snowpack Summary

~5cm of recent snow overlies variable old surfaces: sun crust on solar aspects; windslab in the alpine and exposed tree-line locations. Sheltered N aspects hold soft snow.

Below 2100m there is a strong rain crust down 40-60cm (from Dec 5th/6th).

The Dec 1 surface hoar, down 60-100cm, has seen isolated deep pockets "pop" out in steeper, alpine terrain.

In shallow areas at upper elevations, the base of the snowpack is faceted and unsupportive.

Weather Summary

Flurries later this week will provide a much needed refresh to the surface conditions in Rogers Pass.

Tonight: Isolated flurries, Alp low -6°C, light SW winds,1100m freezing level (fzl).

Thurs: Flurries, 10cm, light/mod SW winds, high -6°C, 1300m fzl.

Fri: Isolated flurries, trace, Alp high -7°C, light/mod SW winds, 1000m fzl.

Sat: Scattered flurries, 5cm, Alp high -8°C, light/mod SW winds.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be carefull with sluffing in steep terrain, especially above cliffs and terrain traps.

Problems

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.