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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 15th, 2026–Feb 16th, 2026

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Flathead, Lizard.

Storm snow will increase through the day. Coupled with moderate wind, storm slabs will be most reactive in lee terrain.

Cautious route-finding, and conservative decision making is key.

Confidence

Moderate

  • We are uncertain due to the timing, track, and intensity of the incoming weather system.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday, size 2 storm slab avalanches were artificially triggered in steep alpine terrain

On Saturday, Widespread storm slab avalanche activity was observed. Slabs were size 1.5 to 2, triggered naturally and artificially.

Going forward, we expect storm snow to remain reactive especially where it is being redistributed into lee terrain by moderate wind from the south.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 10 cm of new snow will bring recent storm snow totals to roughly 40 cm. This new snow sits over a variety of surfaces including wind affected snow, surface hoar in sheltered areas and crust on solar aspects and low elevations.

Below this, depending on aspect and elevation, the upper snowpack may contain two more layers of crust, facets and/or surface hoar formed in late January and early February. We have uncertainty around the reactivity of these layers.

The mid and lower snowpack remain well settled, with no significant concerns at this time.

Weather Summary

Sunday Night
Mostly cloudy. 1 to 2 cm of snow. 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -6 °C.

Monday
Cloudy. 5 to 10 cm of snow. 40 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -3 °C. Freezing level 1500 m.

Tuesday
Mostly cloudy. 10 cm of snow. 20 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C.

Wednesday
Mix of sun and clouds. 1 cm of snow. 10 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -14 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Don't let the desire for deep powder pull you into high consequence terrain.
  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind-affected terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.