Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 3rd, 2025–Mar 4th, 2025

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Rockies, Akamina, Bull, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Seeking dry snow after the warmup may lead you into terrain with lingering persistent slab hazards.

Remain cautious on high northerly slopes & areas without a supportive surface crust.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Sun: Several small loose wet avalanches were ski cut and one size 2 natural avalanche occurred near Castle Mtn.

Fri /Sat: Naturally triggered size 2.5 persistent slabs occurred near Castle Mtn. Both ran on the persistent weak layer, approx 50 cm deep. In nearby Warterton, five natural size 2.5 to 3 persistent slabs were observed on north through east slopes at treeline and alpine. They also ran on the same weak layer, which remains a concern at higher elevations.

Snowpack Summary

In most areas, the snow surface is crusty or wet/moist up to around 1900 m. The moist snow extends 30 to 50 cm deep, while most sun-affected slopes are moist to ground. Dry but wind-affected snow may remain on high north-facing slopes.

The main feature of the region's overall shallow snowpack is a persistent weak layer of surface hoar or facets from late January now buried 40 to 60 cm deep (see photo below). This layer was active during the warm-up and remains a concern at elevations where a thick surface crust hasn't stabilized the snowpack.

Weather Summary

Monday Night

Mostly cloudy with 0 to 5 cm of snow, clearing toward morning. 10 to 15 km/h west ridgetop wind, increasing. Freezing level 1400 m, then falling to valley bottom. Treeline temperature around -10 °C.

Tuesday

Sunny, with increasing cloud in the afternoon. 10 to 20 km/h west ridgetop wind. Freezing level 1700 m. Treeline temperature around -2 °C.

Wednesday

Cloudy with 5 to 15 cm of snow. 15 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level 1700 m. Treeline temperature around 2 °C.

Thursday

Sunny. 10 km/h northeast ridgetop wind. Freezing level 1800 m. Treeline temperature around-1 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Avalanche activity is unlikely when a thick melt-freeze crust is present on the snow surface.
Avoid thin areas like rocky outcrops where you're most likely to trigger avalanches on deep weak layers.
Loose avalanches may step down to deeper layers, resulting in larger avalanches.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.