Regions
Vancouver Island.
No new avalanche activity has been reported over the past two days.
Past Weather
Warm temps Wednesday saw light rain and freezing rain at lower elevations and some damp new snow higher up. Cooling Thursday created a crust on most surfaces that was then buried by light new snowfall.
Weather Forecast
A significant storm is set to rolling Friday afternoon in to Saturday morning with a good dump of snow and high winds. Then a clearing after will cool things off Saturday prior to a slight warm up Sunday. Friday - 15 to 36 cm of new snow (higher amounts to the west Strathcona, moderate amounts to the north Cain, and lower numbers to the East Washington. Winds will be strong from the SW during the storm. Temps 1 to -3. Freezing levels 600 to 1500 m.Saturday - The precip will taper off in the morning. The strong winds will switch direction from the SW to from the NW. Temps will drop to -1 to -8. Freezing levels will be 100 to 800 m. Sunday - No new precip. Winds will drop to moderate NW. Temp will rise to 0 to +2. Freezing levels will be 900 to 1800 m.
Terrain Advice
Avoid open terrain after the new snow arrives Friday afternoon into Saturday, especially windloaded slopes on the SE to NE. Give the snowpack and aggressive terrain time to heal after the big snow and wind event.Temps will play a role in converting new snow into a wet snow avalanche problem at lower elevations (Friday with possible rain and via a solar heating influence Sunday).
Snowpack Summary
A few centimeters of new snow fell Thursday onto a thin crust. The crust was formed by the cooling of the moist surfaces left behind after Wednesday's light rain, freezing rain and moist snowfall. This thin crust caps 6-30cm of snow (location dependent) over the thick rain crust that formed after the big rain event last Friday.
Snowpack Details
- Surface: a few cm of new snow over a thin crust
- Upper: moist snow bonding well to the thick rain crust created by last fridays rain event with some weak snow below
- Mid: a bunch of well settled moist snow, sitting on a very thick crust
- Lower: well settled snow underlying the very thick crust
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty in how the new snow will bond to the old surfaces.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.