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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 30th, 2020–Jan 31st, 2020

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

Avalanche danger is expected to become HIGH before the end of the day as heavy precipitation, strong winds, and rising temperatures make their way into the region. Be aware of conditions changing over the day, especially in overhead terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

Thursday night: Cloudy with flurries bringing 5-10 cm of new snow. Strong southwest winds.

Friday: Cloudy with increasing snowfall bringing 15-25 cm of new snow, transitioning to rain below about 1700 metres, continuing overnight. Strong southwest winds. Alpine high temperatures approaching 0 as freezing levels climb to 1800-2000 metres.

Saturday: Cloudy with continuing flurries bringing 10-15 cm of new snow and 2-day snow totals to 30-50 cm, closer to 10 cm below 1500 metres. Light to moderate northwest winds. Alpine temperatures dropping to -10 as freezing levels fall from 1700 metres to valley bottom over the day.

Sunday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Light southwest winds. Alpine high temperatures around -10.

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, there was a report of a size 2.5 persistent slab avalanche on a north aspect at 1900 m in an area southwest of Valemount.

On Saturday there was one notable report of a size 3 persistent slab avalanche southwest of Valemount that was remotely triggered (triggered from a distance) by a group of people.

Over the past week there have been reports of numerous size 1-2.5 storm slab avalanches on all aspects at all elevations. These were mostly natural avalanches, with a few explosives triggered avalanches as well.

Looking forward, heavy precipitation, strong winds, and rising temperatures will promote increasing natural avalanche activity on Friday. During this time, occasional persistent slab releases such as those mentioned above may result from avalanche activity in surface snow layers.

Snowpack Summary

20-35 cm of new snow is expected to fall at higher elevations in the region by end of day on Friday. The new snow will cover wind affected recent snow at alpine and upper treeline elevations while rain saturates the surface below about 1700 metres.

The mid and lower snowpack are generally well settled and strong, however there is a weak layer of surface hoar currently buried 70 to 130 cm deep. This layer has produced very few recent avalanches in the region, though it could still be triggered in isolated areas.

Terrain and Travel

  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.
  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind or rain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.