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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 14th, 2026–Jan 15th, 2026

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Glacier.

Overnight cooling will play a key role in how the snowpack recovers from recent warm temperatures and rain. Travel conservatively and avoid overhead hazards—if the sun comes out, solar slopes will be suspect.

Confidence

Moderate

  • Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Avalanche Summary

Artillery control in Rogers Pass from Jan 12 produced many avalanches from sz 2.5 to 3.5. Natural avalanches before control commenced were running to valley bottom in the Tupper/Macdonald corridor. Natural avalanche activity has decreased with the storm passage.

In the last wee, neighbouring ski operations reported storm slabs triggered both naturally and by humans up to sz 2.

Snowpack Summary

In summary, the snowpack consists of a heavy, warm, and widespread storm slab sitting over a well-settled mid and lower snowpack. Above-freezing temperatures have reached into the alpine, and once temperatures drop, this will form a problematic breakable crust.

A January 1 persistent weak layer remains buried 90–130 cm deep. At treeline and below it is surface hoar in sheltered areas, while above treeline and into the alpine it is expressed as a crust on solar slopes.

Weather Summary

The pattern changes as cold air moves in from the north.

Tonight: Mainly cloudy. Alp low -7°C. Winds SW 35km/h. Freezing level (FZL) 1800m

Thurs: Cloudy with sunny periods. Alp high -7°C. Winds NW 15km/h. FZL 1100m

Fri: Sunny with cloudy periods. Alp high -3°C. Winds NW 10km/h. FZL 1200m.

Sat: Sunny, Alp high 0°C. West winds 10km/h. FZL 1700m. Alpine temp inversion.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Avoid areas with overhead hazard.
  • Don't let the desire for deep powder pull you into high consequence terrain.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.