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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 21st, 2022–Feb 22nd, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Strong northeast wind on Tuesday is expected to redistribute the recent storm snow into reactive wind slabs. In eastern parts of the region which received more recent storm snow, a more widespread storm slab problem may exist. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack. Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

Arctic high pressure brings a couple more days of cold conditions before returning to seasonal temperatures by Thursday. 

Monday Night: Clear, light to moderate NE wind, treeline low around -14 °C.

Tuesday: Sunny, moderate to strong NE wind, treeline high around -5 °C.

Wednesday: Mainly sunny with some cloud in the late afternoon, wind becoming strong NW in the afternoon, treeline high around -4 °C.

Thursday: Sunny, light to moderate N wind, treeline high around 0 °C.

Avalanche Summary

Ongoing wind slab formation is expected in exposed high elevation terrain with periods of strong northeast winds having begun on Monday and expected to continue on Tuesday.

On Sunday, some small natural loose dry avalanches were observed on very steep south-facing slopes. Ski cutting was also triggering some small loose dry avalanches. 

Snowpack Summary

The weekend storm produced up to 25 cm of new snow for the North Shore Mountains and around 35-40 cm in the east of the region, most of which fell with very little wind. Strong northeast wind on Tuesday is expected to redistribute this storm snow and form new wind slabs.

The mid-February crust is down around 25-50 cm and exists on all aspects and elevations. There is still a fair bit of uncertainty as to how the recent storm is bonding to this crust. 

The late-January melt-freeze crust is now down around 80 cm and seems to be well bonded to the surrounding snow. The middle and lower snowpack are considered well settled and strong.

Terrain and Travel

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.