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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 24th, 2022–Mar 25th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Columbia.

Assess for unstable conditions at higher elevations in your riding area.

Confidence

High - The snowpack structure is generally well understood.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT: Increasing clouds with no precipitation, 10 km/h south wind, alpine temperature -4 C.

FRIDAY: Mostly cloudy with no precipitation, 10 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -1 C, freezing level rising to 1900 m.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy with isolated flurries, accumulation 2 to 5 cm, 20 km/h southeast wind, alpine temperature -1 C.

SUNDAY: Cloudy with rain or snow, accumulation 5 to 10 cm above the snow-rain line, 20 km/h south wind, alpine temperature 0 C.

Avalanche Summary

Widespread wet loose and wet slab avalanche activity was observed on Wednesday during the warm spell. Similar activity is not expected for Friday under cooler and cloudy conditions.

A few large (size 2) persistent slab avalanches were also triggered during the warm-up, being 70 to 100 cm deep and on northerly aspects around 2300 m. Looking forward, riders could still trigger this layer where it exists.

Snowpack Summary

Above around 2200 m, 5 to 15 cm of recent snow may have formed small wind slabs in lee terrain features from southwest wind. Below 2200 m, a hard melt-freeze crust or moist snow exists.

A weak layer may be found around 50 to 100 cm deep. The layer consists of surface hoar crystals in treeline terrain on northerly aspects or weak faceted grains above a hard melt-freeze crust on sun-exposed slopes (i.e., east, south, west). It has been reactive between 1800 and 2300 m but given the recent rain, it is most likely to be triggered between 2000 and 2300 m. It should still be treated as suspect if you find it in your riding area.

The remainder of the snowpack is well-bonded.

Terrain and Travel

  • Look for signs of instability: whumphing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches.
  • Carefully evaluate steep lines for wind slabs.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.