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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 13th, 2022–Feb 14th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

The likelihood of triggering the late-January weak layer is decreasing but it remains reactive and capable of producing large avalanches. 

Watch for new wind slab formation on Monday in exposed high elevation terrain. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the track & intensity of the incoming weather system.

Weather Forecast

The warm air exits the region Sunday overnight. A weak storm system is expected to bring light snowfall for Monday morning before clearing in the afternoon. 

Sunday night: Increasing cloud cover, moderate SW wind, freezing levels falling to around 1000 m.

Monday: Snowfall in the morning up to 15 cm, sunny in the afternoon, moderate SW wind becoming light NW, freezing levels reaching around 1400 m. 

Tuesday: Mainly sunny, light to moderate NW wind, freezing levels around 1200 m. 

Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud, light to moderate NW wind, freezing levels as high as 2000 m with an inversion. 

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, a natural size 2 cornice release was reported from a steep, rocky NW aspect at 2100 m. A variety of loose wet avalanches were reported from steep, sun-exposed slopes. Explosives triggered four cornices up to size 2. 

On Friday, a few natural cornice releases were reported, some of which triggered small slabs on the slopes below. Some natural loose wet avalanches were also reported from steep sun-exposed slopes. In the northwest of the region, explosives triggered three moist storm slabs 10-40 cm thick on solar aspects and two cornices which triggered small slabs on the slopes below. Further south, explosives triggered wind slabs up to size 2 failing down 60 cm. 

Snowpack Summary

Monday's snowfall will bury a widespread surface crust and wind-affected surfaces in exposed high elevation terrain. The new melt-freeze crust is reported to exist on all aspects and elevations except for some of the highest elevation polar aspects which may still hold dry snow. The crust is reported to be undergoing faceting in some areas. 

The late-January crust/facet/surface hoar interface is buried down 30-70 cm. This layer was most reactive between 1700 m and 2000 m. While this layer now appears to be dormant in many parts of the region, recent snowpack tests suggest it is still very reactive in a few places and still capable of producing large avalanches if triggered. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried persistent weak layers.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Wind slabs may be poorly bonded to the underlying crust.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.