Avalanche Forecast

Friday night : Snowfall 10-20 cm, strong, southwest wind, alpine temperature around -1, freezing level 1000 m.

Saturday: Mostly cloudy with flurries up to 5 cm, moderate west wind, high of -1, freezing level 800 m.

Sunday: Mostly cloudy with sunny periods, light to moderate northwest wind, high of -2, freezing level 600 m.

Monday: Sunny, moderate northeast wind, high of -10, freezing level valley bottom.

On Thursday, natural loose wet activity was observed around Shames up to size 2. Skier and explosive triggered storm and wind slabs were also reported size 2.

30-50 cm of heavy, moist snow from the recent storm will freeze from the surface down as freezing levels drop over the weekend. Below the recent storm snow, a widespread 10-30 cm thick rain crust at all elevations makes human triggering of avalanches on weak layers deeper in the snowpack very unlikely.

However, cornices overhead are a primary concern during sunny, warm, or windy conditions. Cornice failures can trigger very large persistent slab avalanches that would otherwise be difficult to human trigger.

• Keep in mind that human triggering potential persists as natural avalanching tapers off.
• Start with conservative lines and watch for clues of instability.
• Investigate the bond of the recent snow before committing to your line.
• Stay off recently wind loaded slopes until they have had a chance to stabilize.
• A crust on the surface will help bind the snow together, but may make for tough travel conditions.