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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 30th, 2022–Mar 31st, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Conditions may change quickly with rain or strong solar input. Be ready to scale back your exposure to avalanche terrain if the surface crust breaks down.

Cautious route-finding will be important at upper elevations as wind slabs may be reactive to human triggering.

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength. Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Mainly cloudy, light flurries. Freezing level dropping to valley bottom. 20-40 km/h northwesterly winds.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with flurries, greatest accumulation in the north of the region (2-3 cm). Freezing level rising to 1200 m. 25-40 km/h westerly winds.

FRIDAY: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries. Freezing level rising to 1300 m. 20-35 km/h southwesterly winds.

SATURDAY: Partially cloudy with flurries, clearing around mid-day in the north of the region. Freezing level rising to 1700 m. 20-40 km/h westerly winds. 

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday, in the north of the region small (size 1) wind slabs were reactive to human-triggering in the alpine. In the south of the region, a natural storm/wind slab cycle up to size 3 occurred, triggered by warm temperatures and strong solar radiation. The most reactivity was noted on south-facing aspects.

A widespread wet loose natural avalanche cycle up to size 3 occurred on Monday on all aspects and elevations. The most activity occurred below treeline. 

The last persistent slab avalanche in the region was on March 26th. This layer is expected to become dormant after being tested by significant warming followed by cooling temperatures. 

Snowpack Summary

5-15 cm of new snow overlies up to 30 cm of denser snow that tapers rapidly with elevation. Westerly wind may form pockets of windslab in the alpine and exposed treeline. A crust or moist snow can be found below the new snow on all aspects as high as 2000 m and to mountain top on solar aspects. Below the crust, the top 10-30 cm of the snowpack is moist.

Several other crust layers exist in the upper snowpack, that have shown no recent reactivity. The remainder of the snowpack is well-bonded.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
  • Wind slabs may be poorly bonded to the underlying crust.
  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.
  • The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.