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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 3rd, 2023–Jan 4th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Columbia, South Columbia, Blue River, Premier, Clemina, Esplanade, Jordan, North Monashee, North Selkirk, West Purcell, Badshot-Battle, Central Selkirk, Goat, Gold, Kokanee, Retallack, Valhalla, Whatshan.

Large human-triggered avalanches continue to be possible. Stay disciplined and make conservative terrain choices.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Numerous large to very large (size 2 to 3) avalanches were triggered by riders, explosives, and naturally on Monday, failing on the weak layers described in the Snowpack Summary. Most avalanches were between 1800 m and 2500 m, 70 to 200 cm deep, and on all aspects. Here is an example. These avalanches continue to show us that these buried layers are triggerable and high consequences would result from being caught. Many of these human-triggered avalanches were a surprise to the individuals triggering them.

Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Light, low-density snow on the surface sits on top of a settled and bonding upper snowpack. A weak layer buried just before Christmas is 40 to 70 cm down from the surface. The lower snowpack is generally weak and facetted, with a weak layer buried in November, consisting of large, weak facets near the bottom of the snowpack.

Snowpack depths are roughly 150 to 200 cm at treeline.

Weather Summary

Tuesday night

Cloudy with no precipitation. Light south winds. -10 C at treeline.

Wednesday

A mix of sun and cloud, no precipitation. Light southeast winds. -10 C at treeline.

Thursday

A mix of sun and cloud, with flurries. Light to moderate southeast winds. -5 to -10 C at treeline.

Friday

Cloudy with flurries. Moderate southerly winds. -5 to -10 C at treeline.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
  • Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.
  • Choose simple, low-angle, well supported terrain without convexities.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.