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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 26th, 2021–Feb 27th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

North Columbia.

Storm slabs may continue to be reactive, especially in wind loaded terrain, and on south facing slopes if solar radiation is strong.

There is the potential to trigger deeper weak layers, resulting in large avalanches. Choose conservative terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast. Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT - Cloudy with clear periods and a few flurries / light to moderate northwest wind / alpine low temperature near -14 

SATURDAY - A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries / light to moderate northwest wind / alpine high temperature near -13

SUNDAY - Mainly cloudy with a few flurries / strong southwest wind / alpine high temperature near -6 / freezing level 1500 m

MONDAY - Flurries, 5-10 cm / strong southwest wind / alpine high temperature near -6 / freezing level 1500 m

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, there was a report of a human-triggered size 2 avalanche that resulted in a full burial in a cutblock near Blue River. Check out the MIN report here.

On Thursday, there were numerous reports of human-triggered size 1-1.5 storm slab, wind slab, and dry loose avalanches. There were also a few reports of natural avalanches up to size 3 in the neighbouring Glacier National Park region.

On Wednesday there were two explosives-triggered size 3 persistent slab avalanches reported on east to southeast aspects around treeline. These were notable as they failed on the late January persistent weak layer.

There was a widespread natural and explosives-triggered avalanche cycle over the weekend and into Monday, with avalanches reported up to size 4. The largest of these avalanches were reported in the Selkirks.

Snowpack Summary

The region has received 60-100 cm of fresh snow in recent days. Deep wind deposits may be found in lee terrain features in the alpine and open treeline areas, and will likely remain reactive to human triggers. All of this new snow sits over weak, faceted snow from the recent cold snap. 

There is now 70-120 cm of snow above the late January persistent weak layer which is composed of surface hoar in sheltered areas in the trees and/ or a crust on steep solar aspects. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Use conservative route selection and resist venturing out into complex terrain.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Be carefull around freshly wind loaded features.
  • Even brief periods of direct sun could produce natural avalanches.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.