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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 26th, 2024–Feb 27th, 2024

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies, Akamina, Flathead, Lizard, Bull, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Recent storm snow needs time to gain strength and stabilize, while a buried crust remains a major concern.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Sadly, an avalanche fatality occurred on Saturday near Gardiner Creek. The avalanche was triggered by a group of snowmobilers from below. It is believed that a layer of facets on a crust was the failure layer. You can read more details here.

This MIN from last Thursday details a skier-triggered avalanche on the same crust/facet layer found throughout the region.

Snowpack Summary

Recent storm snow has been redistributed by strong winds at higher elevations.

As much as 40 cm now sits atop a variety of surfaces, including sun crusts on south-facing slopes and faceted snow on sheltered, north-facing terrain.

A widespread crust formed in early February is buried by 50 to 100 cm. In some areas, weak faceted grains have formed above and/or below the crust.

Weather Summary

Monday Night

Mostly cloudy with 1 to 5 cm of snow. 10 to 20 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -17 °C.

Tuesday

Mix of sun and cloud with 1 to 5 cm. 10 to 30 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -15 °C.

Wednesday

Cloudy with 2 to 15 cm of snow. 40 to 60 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C. Freezing level 1500 m.

Thursday

Cloudy with 5 to 20 cm of snow. 40 to 60 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C. Freezing level 1500 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Good day to make conservative terrain choices.
  • Give the new snow time to settle and stabilize before pushing into bigger terrain.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Avoid areas where the snow feels stiff and/or slabby.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.