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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 11th, 2025–Nov 12th, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Early Season
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Early Season
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Early Season

Regions

Glacier.

Lingering storm slabs remain the primary concern. This could be most reactive where it overlies a weak layer of surface hoar.

A widespread breakable surface crust is making travel "unpleasant" below 1900m

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

This past weekend a skier triggered a size 2.0 avalanche at Balu Pass and they went for a rocky ride. The avalanche was triggered from a thin area, and fractured ~30m above the rider. The rider was caught and partially buried.

This time of year areas with smooth ground cover are more likely to produce avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

Below treeline the snow surface is either wet from recent rain or a breakable crust where it has re-frozen. Above 1900m the snow is heavy but dry.

Moderate to strong winds have redistributed recent snow in the Alpine. A surface hoar layer is buried down ~30cm in open areas treeline and above. There is approximately 120cms of snow in the Alpine, 80cms at treeline, and 20cm at the highway elevation.

Glaciers have poor coverage with just enough snow to hide small crevasses.

Weather Summary

A warm, wet weather system will bring high freezing levels and heavy snow/rain Thursday.

Tonight: Clear, no precipitation. Alpine low -5°C. Freezing level (FZL) 1400m. Ridge winds SW 30-45km/hr.

Wed: Mix of sun and cloud with flurries. FZL 1600m. Winds W 20km/h.

Thur: Heavy Snow, 20-40cms. FZL 2400m. Winds: SW 20 gusting 65km/hr

Fri: Periods of snow, 15-20cms. FZL 2200m. Winds: light, gusting strong

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Surface hoar distribution is highly variable. Avoid generalizing your observations.
  • Approach lee and cross-loaded slopes with caution.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.