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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 16th, 2023–Mar 17th, 2023

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Excellent skiing can be found on shaded slopes. Expect a surface crust on solar slopes in the morning - as this switches from crusty to moist/wet it is time to scale back your exposure.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

There was a widespread cycle of avalanche activity on steep solar aspects on Thursday. These were primarily loose snow avalanches in the size 1-2 range, with a few larger (size 3) avalanches in the steep paths off of Mt. Tupper. There were also a few slab avalanches up to size 2.5 reported in 8812 bowl, Frequent Flyer and the West aspect of Mt. Green. All activity is suspected to be failing on the March 11th crust.

Field teams were able to ski cut size 1-1.5 slabs on small steep unsupported solar features (buried crust) on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 40cm of recent snow is settling over a variety of old surfaces (sun crust, surface hoar and soft facetted snow). This storm snow will take longer to bond where it sits on a crust/surface hoar combo.

Below this is a generally strong snowpack, however the basal weakness of rounding facets/decomposing crust persists near the ground and should factor in to your terrain use decisions.

Weather Summary

Building high pressure will maintain calm weather through the remainder of this week with light winds and no significant precipitation.

Tonight: Clear periods. Alpine low -6°C. Light South ridgetop winds.

Friday: Mix of sun and cloud. Alpine High -4°C, freezing level (FZL) 1600m. Light S ridgetop winds.

Sat: Mix of sun and cloud. Low -7°C, High -3°C, FZL 1700m. Light S winds.

Sun: Sunny periods. FZL 1800m.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid sun exposed slopes, especially if snow surface is moist or wet.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.